That clashing sound you’ve been hearing recently? It might be China engaging in saber rattling.
Why should we care about a potential military conflict half a world away? In this News4Patriots article, I’ll let you know why the Chinese government is upset, what their plans are regarding Taiwan and how a war in Asia would likely affect your food prices and availability. As well as what you can do to prepare.
China’s communist government has made it clear they’re not pleased with recent visits to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. congressional delegations.
In addition to tough talk, China has launched missiles over the island. And conducted military exercises. As well as ending several cooperation agreements with the U.S.
Why? As a blatant reminder that China plans to annex Taiwan at some point. Maybe peaceably. Perhaps not.
Ukraine War Just a Taste
We’ve seen what happened when Russia invaded Ukraine. Global energy markets were disturbed. Gas prices shot up.
Food shortages occurred in a number of countries. Where food could be found, costs went sky high.
This situation in eastern Europe could deteriorate before improving. With winter coming, energy use will increase, as will costs.
Parts of Europe are already in a recession and the U.S. is not far off. It’s very possible an intensification of the war will hurt our economy even more.
World Would Feel Impact
Economic experts say if China starts an armed conflict with Taiwan, the world’s economic problems will get worse. Much worse than what the Ukraine war has caused.
That’s because China’s manufacturing sector is much more closely connected to economies around the globe than either Russia’s or Ukraine’s.
One look at the seas around China and Taiwan will reveal that. It’s where we see some of the busiest shipping lanes on the planet. Not to mention active air routes.
And lately there’s been another kind of “busyness,” with both China and Taiwan conducting military exercises.
Global Depression ‘All But Guaranteed’
Prior to the Ukraine invasion, America’s trade with Russia and Ukraine totaled about $40 billion per year. Our combined annual trade with China ($656 billion) and Taiwan ($114 billion) is nearly 20 times as high.
Also, items we and other countries receive from China and Taiwan are more important to our economies. Including consumer products and semiconductors.
If a war were to disrupt trade – either due to China’s refusal to trade or logistical issues – it would be devastating to the world economy.
Hal Brands and Michael Beckley are authors of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China. They write that “the economic fallout would be disastrous” if China and Taiwan went to war. They say, “A global depression would be all but guaranteed.”
Biden Promises Taiwan Defense
A little history is in order. Taiwan is an island roughly 14,000 square miles in size. It’s located in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, with China to the northwest, Japan to the northeast and the Philippines to the south.
China took control of Taiwan in 1945, following Japan’s surrender in World War II. Four years later, Taiwan broke away after China’s civil war.
Taiwan considers itself an independent democracy. China calls it a renegade republic. China President Xi Jinping has declared that “reunification” with Taiwan is inevitable. And that “liberating” Taiwan can’t continue to be “passed down from generation to generation.”
It’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which Taiwan would passively allow itself to be annexed by China. A military conflict seems more likely. President Joe Biden said recently the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China invades.
That’s great for Taiwan, which is outnumbered by China in active-duty military personnel 2 million to 200,000. But it’s potentially devastating for the global economy.
Betting on Chinese Restraint?
If America were to engage China militarily over Taiwan, it’s estimated the $23 trillion U.S. economy would suffer a 5% loss.
That would mark the biggest setback to the American economy since the Great Depression in the 1930s. The U.S. economy shrank by approximately one-half that amount during the 2009 recession.
Why would the U.S. announce it would defend Taiwan despite the potential economic impact? Perhaps because we believe China will decide against such an attack.
The Chinese economy would probably be hit much harder by a war. Maybe taking a 25% loss to its $17 trillion economy. Those losses would come from economic sanctions and costs of an extended war. Plus physical attacks against its infrastructure by Taiwan.
Many believe the Chinese president would not take such a risk. But that’s what they thought about Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Concerned But Not Intimidated
Taiwan’s leadership won’t take anything for granted. Foreign Minister Joseph Wu called China’s military exercises “a serious provocation.”
He added, “China has used the drills in its military playbook to prepare for invasion of Taiwan. China has threatened Taiwan militarily for years, and it continues to upgrade its efforts.”
China’s military drills are simulating blockades in the Taiwan Strait. As well as firing missiles near the island. And sending military aircraft and warships close by. They’ve even practiced an amphibious assault on the shores of a province across from Taiwan.
Wu said that while his country is “very concerned,” he remains calm. He said, “The best way to deal with a regime which is trying to intimidate us is to show that we are not intimidated. We are not scared by China.”
72-Hour Survival Food Kit
We in the U.S. should not be scared about a potential military conflict either. Or a possible subsequent economic downturn.
But we should always be prepared for food shortages and even higher food prices that might result.
Here’s a good place to start. Or an economical way to boost your current survival food stockpile. Until midnight tonight, 4Patriots is offering a free 72-Hour Survival Food Kit. All you have to do is cover S&H.