Do you know what the oldest continuously published periodical in the U.S. and Canada is?
It’s The Old Farmer’s Almanac. With the 2022 edition being available, I thought we could take a look today at what they’re predicting for the 2021-22 winter. It officially begins in less than two weeks, although it’s already cold in many areas.
Before we get into specifics for your portion of the country, here’s their overall forecast theme: “A Season of Shivers.”
That will give you a good idea of what they say we can expect. They’re predicting “bone-chilling temperatures across most of the United States.”
80% Accuracy Rate Claimed
Janice Stillman is editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac. She says, “This coming winter could well be one of the longest and coldest that we’ve seen in years.”
The folks at the Almanac claim an 80 percent accuracy rate. They use three scientific disciplines for their long-range predictions.
First is solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity. Second is climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns. The third is meteorology, the study of the atmosphere.
Predictions result from comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.
It’s All About the Science
The Almanac’s forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals.
They are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies. So, what are they looking at for this winter’s predictions?
They’re considering a weak La Niña, a continued warm phase in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a neutral to positive phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the early stages of its warm cycle.
Additionally, they are factoring in the early stages of Solar Cycle 25. It’s expected to bring very low solar activity. And that’s been associated with cooler temperatures on average.
Cold Temps and Lots of Snow
The Almanac is calling for cold and lots of snow in some places. Including areas of New England and throughout the Ohio Valley. As well as in northern portions of the Deep South and in southeast New Mexico.
More snow than usual is also predicted along a track from eastern Montana southward. Then through the western halves of the Dakotas and into northeastern Colorado.
Temperatures in this mid-country strip will be relatively normal. But snowfall will be heavy. Several storms are predicted throughout the winter.
Most western areas will be relatively dry. But only the Pacific Coast and Southwest will avoid the frigid cold predicted for much of the rest of the country.
Month-by-Month Forecasts
Want more specifics? Here are a few from the Almanac.
Temperatures in most of the country will start out mild in early to mid-January, then get much colder the rest of the month. Overall, January will be stormy.
In Texas and other parts of the South, January could bring frigid air like what occurred in February of this year. But hopefully not as cold.
Hefty storms are expected in the West during the second half of January.
February should be quieter in terms of storms throughout most of the country. But a “winter whopper” could hit the Northeast and Ohio Valley toward the end of the month.
March will see close to normal precipitation nationwide. But precipitation will come in large doses when it does occur. The Midwest can expect a late winter storm by mid-month, followed by a nor’easter along the East Coast.
Better Over-Prepared Than Under-Prepared
Now, I know there are plenty of people who are skeptical of weather predictions. Hey, sometimes I’m one of them.
But I also realize weather forecasting has become more sophisticated and accurate in recent years. And I’m glad of that fact. Some weather forecasts have helped me become better prepared.
Not all weather forecasts are accurate. But at the end of the day, what would you rather be? Over-prepared for what turns out to be a mild winter? Or under-prepared for what turns out to be a brutal winter?
I think we’d all prefer to be over-prepared. One of the ways to be as prepared as possible for winter weather is having an emergency weather radio. Better yet, several of them.
My Recommendation Is…
The emergency weather radio I’m recommending is the 4Patriots Liberty Band Emergency Solar Radio.
This tactical information hub features National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather alerts. Plus seven 24/7 weather channels and AM/FM and shortwave radio.
It also includes an LCD display clock with alarm and an ultra-bright flashlight.
We made it lightweight with the ability to recharge with the power of the sun.
We added a hand crank for emergency starting. We even made sure it could power up other devices when you need them most. Including your cell phone.
